(418 pages)
Had heard a lot about this book but didn't check it out until PJr loan of his copy.
Starts with useful discussion of "System 1" and "System 2".
System 1 - efficiency! Once it finds a cause, it likes to rely on it. Operating continuously, establishing what's normal, alert to threats. Evolution.
Taleb's "The Black Swan" has similarities - efficiency. Useful if not essential for day to day, but prone to error. Narrative fallacy - we love stories.
System 2 - the "stop and think" element, though lazy; likes to rely on S1; interaction between S1 and S2 can be hard to sort out despite many clear cases.
Plenty of other good ideas, too many for me to keep track of.
Base rates - keep in mind as a control on both systems.
Regression effects - complex.
WYSIATI - an easy mistake, I try to get better at trying to think about what is not visible or evident in a given situation.
He cites a definition of intuition that is interesting - essentially it's a cue that retrieves something from memory - persons with vast relevant experience will have more items stored in memory that can be retrieved with the proper cue - we call it intuition but it's really memory. Makes sense.
But emphasizes trusting rules/algorithms and not intuition/hunches. Hmm.
The "hot hand" fallacy in sports. I still don't buy it, which probably proves one of his points.
The discussion about the difference between lived experience and remembered experience is interesting, illuminating, not solvable but useful:
"Odd as it may seem, I am my remembering self, and the experiencing self, who does my living, is like a stranger to me." (p 390)
That quote seemed absolutely Proustian.
Extensive reliance on experiments and studies. Sufficiently robust? Replicable? Me doubtful but not smart enough to draw a conclusion.
The book is highly useful no matter.
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