Fooled by Randomness - The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2004)

 Author is a good Twitter follow, in part because I sometimes if not often disagree with him or dislike his tone.

And I enjoyed the book a lot, in part because I agree with much of it and have absorbed some of the ideas over the years.  There are elements of math, probability, and the like that I don't understand.

The "fooled by randomness" concept is crucial - he discusses why it's so difficult for humans to refrain from inferring causation from linked events - partly because we're wired for efficiency/shortcuts and often the inference is fine or at least not materially detrimental. I've had this concept repeated to me often enough that I think, or at least hope, that I'm applying it every now and again.

Another basic - evaluate decisions solely on information available at the time of the decision. Difficult not to use a hindsight lens (which has value in some other ways).

Respect how little we can really know - it's fine. Be wary of those who claim to know. Richard Feynman continually articulated this very well.

Black swan concept as an example of this.  Seeing only white swans doesn't disprove the existence of the black swan. This seems to be a common error.

Karl Popper's idea.

This ties to what is finally coming to the fore in academia - mountains of studies, research, papers that are useless - impossible to take into account all the variables, let alone that we can't even identify all of the variables. Tease out thought patterns, but mostly:  be humble.

Interpreting statistics can be tricky. I'm not good at the math but at least try to determine the goals of the presenter of the statistics, what might be cherry-picked, etc. Taleb is good on this topic.

Survivorship bias. Hard to overcome.

If Taleb watches TV, he has it on mute! (One of my favorite life rules.) Sounds like he reads a ton and ignores media and much screen-entertainment . . . appealing to my idiosyncrasies . . .

Borrowed from Jr., one of a group of five books (Incerto) that I will continue to read over time.

Goethe - Life as a Work of Art (Rudiger Safranski, 2013)

I spent a lot of time on this biography.  Not quite sure what I think of Goethe, or what I learn from this.

I read a Goethe biography in 2006 that did a very good job of outlining his life; this biography is discussed here.  

The author of the current biography had greater access to diaries and letters of Goethe and folks with whom he was in contact.  That was interesting.

Part of the interest is Goethe as a leading figure starting in the 1770s - royalty doing quite well, even the minor royalty in the German principalities. Along comes the French Revolution (with agitation for democracy and nationalism in France), the Napoleonic era (with this agitation spreading along with the French armies and encompassing the substates in Germany), Napoleon's defeat and the conservative if not reactionary governments throughout Europe, with Metternich as a key figure.  Then the revolution in France again in 1830.  Goethe lived through all of this and was personally acquainted with all these leaders.

He started out with an early "Romantic era" book (The Sorrows of Young Werther) that took the literary world by storm - somehow striking just the right chord at just the right moment. (It's what Napoleon wanted to talk about in their meeting decades later.) This success - of course supplemented by later actions - facilitated "famousness" throughout his long life.  His life took a major turn when the grand duke in charge of Weimar persuaded him to settle there - a smallish state, it was a coup to land Goethe; the grand duke put Goethe in charge of all sorts of things even though Goethe had little expertise. It made him a much more practical person, if not a conservative as the decades rolled along.  Very impressed by Napoleon and wore the French Legion of Honor (awarded to him by Napoleon) all too often for the tastes of many Germans.

Went through a genuine scare when French troops occupied Weimar, including his residence.  Contributed to his dislike of disorder, nationalism, public passions, etc.

Seems like he was an incredibly gifted person in terms of social skills, and could apply this to both men and women. Descriptions of his romantic relationships; seems like he took advantage of his skills in some situations where he should have refrained. 

The 2006 biography talks about the famous people he interacted with.

Uncanny ability to compose poetry and write all sorts of kinds of literature. Difficulty finishing longer works.

Migrating away from Sturm und Drang - he took a great interest in minerology, sparked by his position as official in charge of Weimar mines.  Another favorite topic - how humans perceive color.  As the years by he kept writing but felt that pursuits in the natural sciences were more worthy.

By the time he passed away in the early 1830s - time had passed him by.  Not popular with young Germans.  Seems like his reputation has recovered, though I don't know how much his works are read.

Not sure what to make of him.